Temperate Climate Research Articles

Climate temperature and seasonal influences on the prevalence of temporomandibular disorders in South Korea

This study aimed to explore seasonal variations in temporomandibular disorder (TMD) prevalence in South Korea, utilizing nationwide population-based big data. Data corresponding to the Korean Standard Classification of Diseases code of K07.6, which identifies TMD, were extracted from the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service online platform for the period from 2010 to 2022. Additionally, we integrated these data with climate temperature records from the Korean Meteorological Administration. We subsequently conducted a statistical analysis of TMD patient data on a monthly and seasonal basis over the past 13 years to assess prevalence. Over the past 13 years, the number of TMD patients in Korea has steadily increased. The prevalence of TMD rose from 0.48% (224,708 out of a total population of 50,515,666) in 2010 to 0.94% (482,241 out of a total population of 51,439,038) in 2022, marking a 1.96-fold increase. Among children under 10 years of age, no significant differences were observed in TMD prevalence between boys and girls. However, a distinct female predominance emerged after the age of 10, with an average female-to-male ratio of 1.51:1. The peak prevalence of TMD occurred in individuals in their 20 s, followed by adolescents in their late 10 s. The majority of TMD patients were concentrated in Seoul and Gyeonggi province, with metropolitan areas accounting for 50% of the total patient count. Seasonally, TMD patient numbers showed no significant increase in winter compared with spring or summer. The temperature difference, defined as the absolute difference between the highest and lowest temperatures for each month, showed a positive correlation with TMD patient counts. A greater temperature difference was associated with higher patient counts. The strongest correlation between temperature differences and TMD patient numbers was observed in winter (r = 0.480, p < 0.01), followed by summer (r = 0.443, p < 0.01), and spring (r = 0.366, p < 0.05). Temperature differences demonstrated a significantly stronger correlation with the increase in the number of TMD patients than absolute climate temperatures. This aspect should be a key consideration when examining seasonal trends in TMD prevalence in South Korea.

Lack of abundant core virome in Culex mosquitoes from a temperate climate region despite a mosquito species-specific virome.

In arthropod-associated microbial communities, insect-specific viruses (ISVs) are prevalent yet understudied due to limited infectivity outside their natural hosts. However, ISVs might play a crucial role in regulating mosquito populations and influencing arthropod-borne virus transmission. Some studies have indicated a core virome in mosquitoes consisting of mostly ISVs. Employing single mosquito metagenomics, we comprehensively profiled the virome of native and invasive mosquito species in Belgium. This approach allowed for accurate host species determination, prevalence assessment of viruses and Wolbachia, and the identification of novel viruses. Contrary to our expectations, no abundant core virome was observed in Culex mosquitoes from Belgium. In that regard, we caution against rigidly defining mosquito core viromes and encourage nuanced interpretations of other studies. Nonetheless, our study identified 45 viruses of which 28 were novel, enriching our understanding of the mosquito virome and ISVs. We showed that the mosquito virome in this study is species-specific and less dependent on the location where mosquitoes from the same species reside. In addition, because Wolbachia has previously been observed to influence arbovirus transmission, we report the prevalence of Wolbachia in Belgian mosquitoes and the detection of several Wolbachia mobile genetic elements. The observed prevalence ranged from 83% to 92% in members from the Culex pipiens complex.IMPORTANCECulex pipiens mosquitoes are important vectors for arboviruses like West Nile virus and Usutu virus. Virome studies on individual Culex pipiens, and on individual mosquitoes in general, have been lacking. To mitigate this, we sequenced the virome of 190 individual Culex and 8 individual Aedes japonicus mosquitoes. We report the lack of a core virome in these mosquitoes from Belgium and caution the interpretation of other studies in this light. The discovery of new viruses in this study will aid our comprehension of insect-specific viruses and the mosquito virome in general in relation to mosquito physiology and mosquito population dynamics.

Potential importance of vegetative spread and fragment regeneration for invasiveness of Clematis vitalba

AbstractIdentifying characteristics of invasive species or growth forms that facilitate their range expansion is critical for management. Clematis vitalba L. (old man's beard) is an invasive temperate liana in many areas of its introduction, yet its seedlings do not thrive in circumstances where resources are limited. Although some lianas in both tropical and temperate climates have been shown to spread by clonal stems along the ground, the bulk of previous research on C. vitalba reproduction has focused largely on aspects of seed ecology. The vegetative growth of the species is poorly understood. The first objective of our study was to evaluate the use of vegetative spread by C. vitalba as a means of local dispersal and population growth. We excavated ten 1‐m2 plots in infested riparian zones and found an extensive, branching network of creeping stems, both above and below ground. Our second objective was to test the ability of C. vitalba stem fragments to act as vegetative propagules. After 4 months, ~50% of two‐node fragments had regenerated, from both creeping and climbing stems. These studies help explain how a temperate liana forms populations and dominate ecological communities. The findings provide good evidence that C. vitalba may rely quite heavily on asexual reproduction. In addition, the results document liana stem phenotypic plasticity; fragmented climbing stems are just as likely as fragmented creeping stems to reprogram shoot tissue systems, generate roots and regrow as independent plants.

Risk management in the heating industry

The heating industry plays a very important role in countries with a cold and temperate climate. Together with the power industry, it determines the energy security of these countries. That is why it is so important to study the risks that threaten the stability of heating companies. The article identifies risks divided into three groups – general economic, industry and specific risks. A risk map was drawn up and a qualitative analysis of their impact for the aforementioned companies was carried out. Such a map is a helpful tool in making decisions related to risk management and ensuring the stability of the functioning of business entities.ul information for both government and local authorities in the search for effective ways to drive the sector’s development.

Competition to Explain Stable Prevalence of Seasonal Viral Respiratory Infections in Temperate Climates.

The prevalence of seasonal viral respiratory infections in temperate climates is relatively stable, but individual viruses vary. This phenomenon is not explained via the conventional view of influenza seasonality which is still incomplete. The viral-flow theory, an outsider theory about the seasonality of influenza, where insects buffer viruses, is able to explain the stable prevalence of viral respiratory infections. Alternative hypotheses to explain this phenomenon are discussed.

The Nutritional Year-Cycle of Italian Honey Bees (Apis mellifera ligustica) in a Southern Temperate Climate

Nutrition is a key aspect influencing honey bee health and overwintering. Since honey bee seasonality in southern temperate climates represents a significant research gap, this study conducted long-term monitoring of honey bees in the Mediterranean (Sassari, Italy). Specifically, individual weight, fat body, and size measurements (head, thorax, abdomen, and total body) were recorded monthly so to detect changes in the nutrient storage of worker bees during an annual cycle. Data were analysed according to sampling date, climate (temperature, precipitation, and daylength), and flower diversity and were conducted for nurse and forager bees separately. The nutritional honey bee year-cycle generally followed the nectar flow and showed two critical timepoints: summer and winter dearth. A short cessation of activities in late fall/early winter coupled with an increase in nutrient storage indicated the presence of winter bees. Precipitation was found to play an important role in honey bee nutrition in the study area through its impacts on colony demography and plants in particular illustrating how climate change could pose a threat to European honey bee populations in the future. These results provide valuable insights into the nutritional dynamics of Apis mellifera ligustica in the Mediterranean that could support management decisions to improve overwintering success and prevent unnecessary colony losses.

Does the Amount of Pre-Sowing Nitrogen Fertilization Affect Sugar Beet Root Yield and Quality of Different Genotypes?

There has always been a specific focus on nitrogen fertilization in sugar beet production due to its important effect on sugar beet root yield and quality. For stable sugar beet growth and satisfactory root yield and quality, balanced N fertilization is crucial. Thus, this study aimed to investigate spring N fertilization in two seasons as the following treatments: N0—control, N1—only pre-sowing fertilization, and N2—pre-sowing with topdressing. Four different genotypes were included in the study (Serenada, Colonia, Fred, and Danton). The experiment was set up in a plain area, belonging to the temperate climate zone in Eastern Croatia (Županja and Vrbanja), with the long-term mean (LTM) (March–October) air temperature around 16 °C and the total precipitation of 515 mm. Pre-sowing N fertilization had a smaller impact on root yield in the year with higher precipitation (31% higher than LTM). Therefore, the average yields with pre-sowing fertilization (N1) and pre-sowing fertilization with top dressing (N2) were very similar and were only 7% higher than those of the control. In a season with less rainfall (29% less than LTM), pre-sowing fertilization with top dressing (N2) had a more pronounced effect on the increase in sugar beet root yield, which was 17% higher compared to that of the control treatment. The sugar beet sucrose content and quality parameters (brei impurities, loss of sugar in molasses, extractable sugar) differed when N fertilization was applied among locations in both seasons. The white sugar yield was the highest at N2 treatment with pre-sowing and topdressing N fertilization. In general, according to the average of all locations and years of research, the Serenada hybrid achieved the highest average root yield (81.1 t ha−1), while Colonia exhibited the highest root sugar content (14.5%) and white sugar yield (9.7 t ha−1).

Impact of bull age, sperm processing, and microclimatic conditions on the viability and DNA integrity of cryopreserved bovine sperm.

Context Seasonal microclimatic fluctuations can cause changes in sperm quality even in dairy bulls bred under temperate climate. These changes can vary between sires of different age and affect sperm freezability. Aims We aimed to evaluate the modulating effect of bull age and equilibration time before freezing on the seasonal pattern of sperm viability and DNA integrity post-thaw. Methods In the frame of systematic sperm quality control, we assessed the integrity of sperm plasma membrane and acrosome (PMAI) in 15,496 cryopreserved bovine batches, and the percentage of sperm with high DNA fragmentation index (%DFI) after 0h and 3h incubation at 38°C post-thaw (3h) in 3422 batches. Semen was equilibrated for 24h before freezing if collected on Monday or Wednesday and 72h if produced on Friday. We investigated the effect of season, bull age, equilibration, and temperature-humidity index (THI) on the day of semen collection on sperm traits using mixed-effects linear models. Key results PMAI and %DFI (0h and 3h) deteriorated with increasing THI. The effect of THI on %DFI was detected with a 30-day time lag. Seasonal fluctuations of sperm quality were similar between young, mature, and older sires. Prolonged equilibration did not affect PMAI but was linked to elevated %DFI (3h) in summer. Conclusions Extending equilibration from 24 to 72h is compatible with commercial standards of bovine sperm quality post-thaw; however, it could interfere with the seasonal pattern of the latter. Implications Systematic monitoring of bovine sperm quality enables the prompt detection of stress factors related to microclimate and semen processing.

Modeling Yield of Irrigated and Rainfed Bean in Central and Southern Sinaloa State, Mexico, Based on Essential Climate Variables

The goal was to model irrigated (IBY) and rainfed (RBY) bean yields in central (Culiacán) and southern (Rosario) Sinaloa state as a function of the essential climate variables soil moisture, temperature, reference evapotranspiration, and precipitation. For Sinaloa, for the period 1982–2013 (October–March), the following were calculated: (a) temperatures, (b) average degree days for the bean, (c) cumulative reference evapotranspiration, and (d) cumulative effective precipitation. For essential climate variables, (e) daily soil moisture obtained from the European Space Agency and (f) IBY and RBY from the Agrifood and Fisheries Information Service were used. Multiple linear regressions were significant for predicting IBY–RBY (dependent variables) as a function of essential climate variables (independent variables). The four models obtained were significantly predictive: IBY–Culiacán (Pearson correlation (PC) = 0.590 &gt; Pearson critical correlation (CPC) = |0.349|), RBY–Culiacán (PC = 0.734 &gt; CPC = |0.349|), IBY–Rosario (PC = 0.621 &gt; CPC = |0.355|), and RBY–Rosario (PC = 0.532 &gt; CPC = |0.349|). Due to the lack of irrigation depth data, many studies only focus on modeling RBY; this study is the first in Sinaloa to predict IBY and RBY based on essential climate variables, contributing to the production of sustainable food.

How Artificial Salt Marsh Vegetation Reduces The Threshold For Sediment Resuspension In Wave-Current Flows

Suspended sediment transport and retention within salt marshes is a key factor in their resilience against erosion associated with threats such as sea level rise and coastal squeeze. Salt marshes are vegetated intertidal wetlands found in temperate climate zones. Their presence contributes to flood protection, coastal flora and fauna, and carbon sequestration (Temmerman et al., 2013). Vegetation-induced resuspension of fine sediment helps to transport fine particles deeper into salt marshes. The interaction between waves, currents, and vegetation may resuspend sediment sooner than it would without vegetation. It has been shown in conditions with only currents (Liu et al., 2021; Tinoco &amp; Coco, 2014) or only waves (Tinoco &amp; Coco, 2018) that the threshold for resuspension is lower within vegetated meadows than without vegetation. However, the threshold has not yet been studied for combined wave-current conditions, which often exist in the marsh environment. Identifying this threshold will enable us to predict when in a tidal cycle sediment resuspension occurs and can be used to improve sediment transport model. We use flume experiments to methodically identify the threshold of sediment resuspension in artificial salt marsh meadows of three different area densities under combined wave-current flows.

Relicts of Threatened Biodiversity: Similarities and Differences among the 7230 EU Habitat Plant Communities on Montane Plateaus of Central Apennines, Italy

The habitats protected by the European Union (EU) include most peat vegetation, such as mires, swamp mires, fens, and peat bogs—all belonging to the classes Oxycocco–Sphagnetea and Scheuchzerio–Caricetea fuscae and carrying the Habitat Codes 71xx and 72xx. These types of vegetation are typical of cold and cool temperate climates, while they become rarer in Southern Europe where Mediterranean influences prevail, representing relic fragments of the past glacial climatic conditions there. Because of their limited extension and the increasing warmth and drought due to climate change, they are seriously threatened. Even if many studies were performed, their richness and distribution across Europe are still not well–understood, and only a few examples are known from the Central and Southern Apennines to date. In order to provide the syntaxonomical classification of the alkaline fens referable to the EU Habitat 7230 found on the mountain plateaus of the Central Apennines, we analyzed their species structure and flora composition, together with their chorological and ecological characteristics. We also evaluated their conservation status, pressures, and threats. The alkaline fens of the Central Apennines are found to be poorer in diagnostic species when compared to similar communities of Central and Northern Europe. However, they are rich in the species of the surrounding meadows and pastures. Among them, the new subassociation Caricetum davallianae caricetosum hostianae is described.

The effect of temperature on the boundary conditions of West Nile virus circulation in Europe.

West Nile virus (WNV) is a vector-borne flavivirus that causes an increasing number of human and equine West Nile fever cases in Europe. While the virus has been present in the Mediterranean basin and the Balkans since the 1960s, recent years have witnessed its northward expansion, with the first human cases reported in Germany in 2018 and the Netherlands in 2020. WNV transmission and amplification within mosquitoes are temperature-dependent. This study applies a mathematical modelling approach to assess the conditions under which WNV circulation occurs based on the proportion of mosquito bites on WNV-competent birds (dilution), vector-host ratios, mosquito season length and the observed daily temperature data. We modelled five distinct European regions where previous WNV circulation has been observed within the Netherlands, Germany, Spain, Italy, and Greece. We observed that the number of days in which the basic reproduction number (R0) is above one, increased over the last 40 years in all five regions. In the Netherlands, the number of days in which the R0 is above one, is 70% lower than in Spain. The temperature in Greece, Spain and Italy allowed for circulation under low vector-host ratios, and at a high dilution. On the other hand in the Netherlands and Germany, given the observed daily temperature, the thresholds for circulation requires a lower dilution and higher vector-host ratios. For the Netherlands, a short window of introductions between late May and mid-June would result in detectable outbreaks. Our findings revealed that the temperate maritime climate of the Netherlands allows WNV circulation primarily during warmer summers, and only under high vector-host ratios. This research contributes valuable insights into the dynamic relationship between temperature, vector properties, and WNV transmission, offering guidance for proactive strategies in addressing this emerging health threat in Europe.

Exploring the causes of the prevalence of vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecalis

BackgroundBacterial drug resistance represents a significant global concern, with vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecalis posing a particularly grave threat to contemporary healthcare systems. This study aims to reveal the reasons for the prevalence of VRE in China.MethodsThis study collected data from the China Antimicrobial Resistance Detection System, China Statistical Yearbook, and China Meteorological Network. The collected data are meticulously organized and subjected to both single-factor and multi-factor analyses. An accurate multiple linear regression model was developed by utilizing this comprehensive dataset.ResultsSingle-factor analysis revealed significant regional variations in the resistance rate of vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecalis (P = 0.003). Specifically, there were noteworthy disparities observed between regions experiencing temperate and monsoon climates (P = 0.029; P = 0.005). Furthermore, multi-factor regression analysis demonstrated a negative correlation between the drug resistance rate and both rainfall and rGDP, while a positive correlation was observed with nPI.ConclusionWe successfully established a prediction model for the VRE and found that the resistance rate was low in areas with high rainfall and high per capita economic income, but high in areas with many specialized public health institutions. This is critical for public health strategies and helps policymakers and healthcare practitioners tailor antibiotic resistance approaches to local geography, meteorology, economic conditions.

Influence of building orientation and thermal mass configuration on the prediction of Natural Ventilation Potential (NVP) of various climates of India.

Natural ventilation potential (NVP) of a climate is a theoretical basis, and it gains importance due to the promising need for building energy conservation while conceding required thermal comfort conditions. A modified NVP analytical model is proposed by considering parameters involved in the earlier models (Yang et al., Build Environ 40:738-746, 2005; Luo et al., Build Environ 42:2289-2298, 2007). The effect of the dynamic thermal behavior of the wall/roof and building orientation on the indoor air temperature has been evaluated. The analytical model is applied to 11 major cities of India that belong to composite, hot-dry, temperate, and warm-humid climates. Five different envelope configurations are analyzed to envisage the NVP of concern climate (ED-I to ED-V). The results show that the effect of dynamic thermal response factors on the NVP is significant, and optimization of thermal response factors in addition to the U-value is mandatory. The impact of wind frequency on the selection of building orientation is substantial since it influences the total heat gained by the building envelope. Moreover, it is perceived that the optimum building orientation is independent of the climate and weather conditions. ED-II and ED-III are energy-efficient envelopes for composite, temperate, warm-humid, and hot-dry climates. The results revealed that the Mumbai climate has the highest NVP of 66% while the building is oriented in an E-W direction, and the lowest is observed for Jodhpur, i.e., 44% of the year when the building is in the NE-SW direction. The model helps the building architectural designers envisage the true NVP and assess the suitability of the building for natural ventilation.

36 Effects of grinding method on ileal digestibility of amino acids in different short-season corn cultivars fed to growing pigs

Abstract Decreased corn production was previously observed in Manitoba due to the low climatic temperatures; however, corn production has increased by developing corn hybrids that require low corn heat units, and therefore can grow in areas with decreased heat units. Milling technology affects feed particle size and shape, which may affect the digestibility of nutrients and growth performance of pigs. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the effects of grinding methods on the apparent (AID) and standardized (SID) ileal digestibility of amino acids (AA) in selected short-season corn cultivars fed to growing pigs. A total of 18 ileal cannulated barrows (56.8 ± 2.9 kg) were assigned to 1 of 6 dietary treatments in a triplicate 6 × 2 incomplete Latin square design with 6 diets and 2 periods to give 6 observations per treatment. Dietary treatments were arranged in a 3 × 2 factorial design with three different corn cultivars [two Manitoba-origin short-season corns (A or B) or a US-origin corn] and two grinding methods [hammer mill or roller mill]. Each ingredient was included as the sole source of protein in the diets. All diets contained 0.3% titanium dioxide as an indigestible marker. Each experimental period lasted 7 d including the first 5 d for adaptation and the last 2 d for ileal digesta collection. After feeding the experimental diets, all pigs were fed a low-protein diet for 7 d to quantify endogenous losses of N and AA for determining the SID of N and AA. Pigs were fed the diets at 2.8 times the maintenance energy requirement based on their body weight at the beginning of each period. Data were analyzed using the PROC MIXED of SAS. The statistical model included diet as fixed effect and replication, animal within replication, and period within replication as random effects. The AID of Arg, Ala, Ser, and Gly were greater (P &amp;lt; 0.05) in short-season corn B compared with US-origin corn. The AID and SID of His in both short-season corns were greater (P &amp;lt; 0.05) than in US-origin corn. The AID of His and SID of Thr in hammer-milled corns were greater (P &amp;lt; 0.05) than in roller-milled corns. A significant interaction was found whereby AID of Ile in hammer-milled corn was not different between short-season corn B cultivar and US-origin corn but in roller-milled corn, short-season corn B cultivar had a greater (P &amp;lt; 0.05) digestibility than US corn. In conclusion, the digestibility of AA was greater in short-season corn than in US corn, and pigs had greater digestibility of AA in hammer-milled corn than roller-milled corn.

Variation in prevalence and intensity of macroparasites in moose and their interactions with winter tick load in eastern Canada

Wild animals are infected with a large diversity and abundance of parasites that can affect their behavior, growth, body condition, and ultimately their survival. Although the adverse effects of parasites and the mechanisms involved in the interactions between a host and its parasites are generally well studied, much less is known about the additive or synergistic effects of multiple parasite species on a host. Moose populations in eastern Canada are infected by several species of endoparasites. In the last decades, the intensity of infestations by winter ticks, an ectoparasite, on moose have increased as a result of increased moose densities and favorable weather conditions that benefit winter tick survival. We aimed to document the diversity, intensity, prevalence, and distribution of different parasite species of moose in southern Quebec, Canada. We then evaluated the potential interaction between winter tick and endoparasites of moose, and we evaluated the effect of the simultaneous presence of ticks and endoparasites on moose body condition. To do so, we collected organs to identify and count endoparasite species, estimate winter tick abundance, and measure subcutaneous fat thickness from 174 hunted moose in fall 2019 in 8 regions of Quebec. Our results showed that the prevalence and intensity of winter tick and gastrointestinal parasites differed among regions, as well as the prevalence of the heart parasite Taenia krabbei and the intensity of lung parasite Echinoccocus granulosus. Moose body condition, however, was not influenced by the simultaneous presence of winter tick and endoparasites. The documentation of the interactive effects of multiple parasite species on a host is fundamental given that future environmental conditions in temperate climate will favor the reproduction, development, and survival of several parasite species, which could affect parasite diversity and abundance in the environment and modify host–parasite dynamics.

An Assessment of a Photovoltaic System’s Performance Based on the Measurements of Electric Parameters under Changing External Conditions

This article presents an analysis of the performance of a 14.04 kWp grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) installation consisting of monocrystalline silicon, polycrystalline silicon and bifacial glass–glass monocrystalline silicon modules. The photovoltaic system was mounted in Poland, a location characterized by temperate climate conditions. On the basis of the obtained results, the photovoltaic parameters were determined in accordance with the international standard. The annual energy yield of the entire system was 1033 kWh/kWp, and the performance ratio achieved was 83%. The highest average daily final yield was in the range of 4.0–4.5 kWh/kWp for each photovoltaic technology under investigation. In the cold part of the year, the efficiency of the photovoltaic modules was estimated to be 15%, and it was estimated to be 7% during the warm part of the year. Array capture losses accounted for around 0.75 kWh/kWp of energy loss per day, whereas the inverter efficiency was over 95% during the months that are beneficial for energy production.

Spatial-temporal variation of water vapor scale height and its impact factors in different climate zones of China

Water vapor scale height reflects the vertical distribution of water vapor in the atmosphere, which is a vital parameter in tropospheric zenith wet delay (ZWD) modeling and GNSS meteorology. This study accurately calculated the long-term water vapor scale height using 89 radiosonde stations in China, analyzed the characteristics in temporal ad spatial variations and explored the impacts factors of the water vapor scale height from the perspective of the climate zones. The numerical results indicate that the water vapor scale height in China exhibits annual and semiannual variations with a rising-then-decreasing trend across the four seasons. A relatively larger value for the water vapor scale height were observed in the subtropical monsoon climate and the temperate continental climate zone, in which the values are greater than 2.35 km, while the values in temperate monsoon climate and the alpine plateau climate zone are relatively small. In addition, the water vapor scale height in different climate zones shows different trends, with a downward trend appeared in the subtropical monsoon climate and the alpine plateau climate zone, while an upward trend was observed in the temperate monsoon climate and the temperate continental climate zone. Furthermore, a positive correlation between water vapor scale height and temperature, pressure, and atmospheric precipitable water was found in China, with a varied degree of correlation in different climate zones.

Which SDM Model, CLIMEX vs. MaxEnt, Best Forecasts Aeolesthes sarta Distribution at a Global Scale under Climate Change Scenarios?

A precise evaluation of the risk of establishing insect pests is essential for national plant protection organizations. This accuracy is crucial in negotiating international trade agreements for forestry-related commodities, which have the potential to carry pests and lead to unintended introductions in the importing countries. In our study, we employed both mechanistic and correlative niche models to assess and map the global patterns of potential establishment for Aeolesthes sarta under current and future climates. This insect is a significant pest affecting tree species of the genus Populus, Salix, Acer, Malus, Juglans, and other hardwood trees. Notably, it is also categorized as a quarantine pest in countries where it is not currently present. The mechanistic model, CLIMEX, was calibrated using species-specific physiological tolerance thresholds, providing a detailed understanding of the environmental factors influencing the species. In contrast, the correlative model, maximum entropy (MaxEnt), utilized species occurrences and spatial climatic data, offering insights into the species’ distribution based on observed data and environmental conditions. The projected potential distribution from CLIMEX and MaxEnt models aligns well with the currently known distribution of A. sarta. CLIMEX predicts a broader global distribution than MaxEnt, indicating that most central and southern hemispheres are suitable for its distribution, excluding the extreme northern hemisphere, central African countries, and the northern part of Australia. Both models accurately predict the known distribution of A. sarta in the Asian continent, and their projections suggest a slight overall increase in the global distribution range of A. sarta with future changes in climate temperature, majorly concentrating in the central and northern hemispheres. Furthermore, the models anticipate suitable conditions in Europe and North America, where A. sarta currently does not occur but where its preferred host species, Populus alba, is present. The main environmental variables associated with the distribution of A. sarta at a global level were the average annual temperature and precipitation rate. The predictive models developed in this study offer insights into the global risk of A. sarta establishment and can be valuable for monitoring potential pest introductions in different countries. Additionally, policymakers and trade negotiators can utilize these models to make science-based decisions regarding pest management and international trade agreements.

Projecting heat-related cardiovascular mortality burden attributable to human-induced climate change in China

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) has been found to be particularly vulnerable to climate change and temperature variability. This study aimed to assess the extent to which human-induced climate change contributes to future heat-related CVD burdens. Daily data on CVD mortality and temperature were collected in 161 Chinese communities from 2007 to 2013. The association between heat and CVD mortality was established using a two-stage time-series design. Under the natural forcing, human-induced, and combined scenarios, we then separately projected excess cause-/age-/region-/education-specific mortality from future high temperature in 2010-2100, assuming no adaptation and population changes. Under shared socioeconomic pathway with natural forcing scenario (SSP2-4.5-nat), heat-related attributable fraction of CVD deaths decreased slightly from 3.3% [95% empirical confidence interval (eCI): 0.3, 5.8] in the 2010s to 2.8% (95% eCI: 0.1, 5.2) in the 2090s, with relative change of-0.4% (95% eCI:-0.8, 0.0). However, for combined natural and human-induced forcings, this estimate would surge to 8.9% (95% eCI: 1.5, 15.7), 14.4% (95% eCI: 1.5, 25.3), 21.3% (95% eCI:-0.6, 39.4), and 28.7% (95% eCI:-3.3, 48.0) in the 2090s under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. When excluding the natural forcing, the number of human-induced heat-related CVD deaths would increase from approximately eight thousand (accounting for 31% of total heat-related CVD deaths) in the 2010s to 33,052 (68%), 63,283 (80%), 101,091 (87%), and 141,948 (90%) in the 2090s under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. Individuals with stroke, females, the elderly, people living in rural areas, and those with lower education level would exhibit heightened susceptibility to future high temperature. In addition, Southern and Eastern regions of China were expected to experience a faster increase in heat-related attributable fraction of CVD deaths. Human activities would significantly amplify the future burden of heat-related CVD. Our study findings suggested that active adaptation and mitigation measures towards future warming could yield substantial health benefits for the patients with CVD. National Natural Science Foundation of China.